While the Ignis ICO is ongoing successfully, the NXT / Ardor community is asking itself if NXT is still worth keeping after the Ignis ICO is over. In this article I want to share my personal opinion.
When I first heard about the Ardor plan, initially known as NXT2.0, it was clear to me that the future proof investment was Ardor, as it was the evolution of NXT and it was bringing solutions that other blockchains were not able to provide as e.g. the blockchain bloat. Also the perspective of a platform with many childchains means a much higher profitability for forgers on the Ardor chain.
Jelurida, the NXT and Ardor core developers company, promised to support NXT for some years, but to me it was sounding like a mild way to slowly abandon NXT and focus only on Ardor.
I then decided to slowly trade my NXT for Ardor and kept only very few NXT for the transaction fees.
But maybe I was overlooking something.
The JPL (Jelurida Public License) introduced a rule to support NXT and its holders and it goes like this:
“Starting from version 1.11.6, the Nxt Reference Software (NRS) is the first software to be released under the Jelurida Public License, with the Special Conditions requiring a 10% sharedrop to the NXT holders from Nxt clones.”
And Jelurida has also provided a “NXT Blockchain Creation Kit” which makes it extremely simple to create a NXT clone and NXT is certainly one of the best solutions out there for features and stability.
So let’s assume that Ardor becomes very successful and businesses start flooding in and create lots of childchains so Ardor holders can profit from forging with their stake. Also Ignis will be consequently successful as it will be a very liquid cryptocurrency and considering the “cross-childchain” possibilities as Asset Exchange and Coin Exchange, I expect it to be a very active and heavily used childchain.
But many ideas out there wanting to use blockchain as their underlying technology are maybe not willing to take the risk of not being valuable enough to be able to stand the “maintenance costs” of a childchain on Ardor, which means that bundling is not a profitable task anymore, which means that the childchain issuer has to start setting up a bundler with a loss in order to keep transactions being processed.
Instead for many applications a NXT clone chain is the perfect solution. It does have the 10% sharedrop to be distributed to the original NXT holders, but that’s a one off payment and basically for free, and after that the blockchain has no “maintenance costs”, besides being able to have enough nodes to create a reliable network. But a profitable business won’t have a problem with that, as nodes will have interest to forge and to consequently extend the network. And also a profitable business will not have the risk that the receivers of the initial sharedrop will dump their “new” holdings. Actually if an interesting project is announcing that it will be based on a NXT clone, there might be a rush to buy NXT in order to get a larger share of the 10% sharedrop.
And also a no longer developed blockchain that works without issues is not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the ETH and BTC forks and the following concerns on blockchain mutability.
So speculating on the future is a very tricky thing especially on a technology like blockchain which is still being shaped day after day. Certainly Ardor and Ignis are what I’m hugely looking forward to because of the revolutionary technology beneath, but NXT might have a more bright future than what we want to believe.